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Irish Navigator Adrienne Cahalane Says an Uncertain Weather Forecast Will Make for a Tense Lead in to Sydney Hobart Race

18th December 2023
Irish-born navigator Adrienne Cahalan of Alive will be racing in this year's Sydney Hobart Race starting on St. Stehpen's Day
Irish-born navigator Adrienne Cahalan of Alive will be racing in this year's Sydney Hobart Race Credit: Andrea Francolini

Offaly-born Australian-based sailing superstar and ace navigator Adrienne Cahalane, a veteran of 30 Hobart races with overall and class wins to her credit, was among the expert panel for the Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race Long Range Weather Forecast pow-wow on Sunday.

Race crews face a tense week preparing for myriad race scenarios due to the ‘significant uncertainty’ of the long-range weather forecast each year.

As Afloat has reported previously, as well as Cahalane, there is Irish interest in the Australian Grand Prix event this year, especially in the two-handed division.

In its long range forecast presented on Monday at the Cruising Yacht Club of Australia, organisers of the 628 nautical mile race, Gabrielle Woodhouse, Senior Meteorologist from the NSW Bureau of Meteorology [BOM] said it is too early to make a precise indication.

That is due to the high temperatures and humidity across NSW in recent days that are also set to continue leading up to the 1 pm St. Stephen's Day start next Tuesday.

Woodhouse said the BOM should have a clearer picture of what’s in store for the 107-strong fleet by the weekend.

Sydney Hobart Long Range Weather Forecast - From left to right race navigators, Gabrielle Woodhouse, David Henry, Alice Parker, Chris Wild, Kathy Veel, Adrienne Cahalan Photo:  Andrea FrancoliniSydney Hobart Long Range Weather Forecast - From left to right race navigators, Gabrielle Woodhouse, David Henry, Alice Parker, Chris Wild, Kathy Veel, Adrienne Cahalan Photo:  Andrea Francolini

She said the best indication now was for a light south-westerly wind at the start with rain and the chance of thunderstorms later.

A low-pressure system is expected over the Tasman, but when that hits is also uncertain.

“It’s too hard to say. The spread of scenarios is too huge,” Woodhouse said on Monday.

“At this stage, it's most likely that the race will begin with some kind of south or south-westerly wind, and during the race, probably we will see some rain and some thunderstorms.

“There's significant uncertainty, and with that prospect of a potential low pressure system, somewhere over the Tasman Sea.

“What we'll see at the moment, for at least the next few days, is quite a bit of movement in some of those forecasts. And we'll start to narrow that down during the weekend.”

For every boat in the 100-plus strong fleet, the huge question mark over the forecast calls for a busy time in the coming days for the navigators to be prepared for anything.

For the David Witt-skippered Dovell 100, SHK Scallywag, the situation could well vindicate the decision to have two navigators on board – Juan Vila and Chris Wild.

The Hong Kong registered boat is one of four maxi yachts in this year’s race in which they are traditionally the Line Honours favourites. The other maxis are the defending Line Honours champion Andoo Comanche, along with LawConnect and the new Wild Thing 100.

Asked about the decision to have two navigators on SHK Scallywag, Wild said: “Navigation is a little bit like a department than a role. There’re multiple facets to it, especially on a maxi.

“With [uncertain] conditions, it’s a good call to have that capability, especially for the second half of the race.

“You do a lot of planning before you leave and then you get to stay on your toes in the second half of the race.”

Adrienne Cahalan, navigator of the Phillip Turner owned and Duncan Hine skippered Reichel/Pugh 66 Alive, said: “We will really have to look at all the different scenarios, including some of the worst ones.

“I can't really think of a year when it's been, you know, so much rain, so much moisture, and so much uncertainty in the forecast.

Alice Parker, navigator of the Reichel/Pugh 72 URM Group, said of the BOM forecast: “It's such a moving picture.

“I find it a little bit exciting when the forecast is this uncertain because anything can happen and there'll be opportunities for little boats and opportunities for big boats.”

Kathy Veel, owner/co-skipper with Bridget Canham of Currawong 30 Currawong said that for the race in the Two-Handed division, she was not overly concerned about the uncertainty.

With Currawong being last to finish last year, Veel is used to handling numerous systems.

“I made a point really of not looking too closely at the weather until a couple of days out, because you can't control it, you're not going to change it,” Veel said.

“There's a lot of other things to worry about. So why worry about the weather a week out?”

David Henry, owner/co-skipper and navigator of the two-handed entry, the Sydney 36, Philosopher, is also preparing for the long haul.

“The only thing we definitely know at this stage is we don't know. I'm just hoping for more good news at the end,” he said.

“We don't have one weather system to worry about, we probably have at least two weather systems to get through.

“We have double trouble when it comes to trying to predict what the weather is going to be.

“What we see on Boxing Day is one weather pattern. A day or so after that, we're looking further down the track, because we'll probably take three or four days to get there.”

Published in Sydney to Hobart
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The Sydney Hobart Yacht Race

The Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race is an annual offshore yacht racing event with an increasingly international exposure attracting super maxi yachts and entries from around tne world. It is hosted by the Cruising Yacht Club of Australia, starting in Sydney, New South Wales on Boxing Day and finishing in Hobart, Tasmania. The race distance is approximately 630 nautical miles (1,170 km).

The 2022 Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race starts in Sydney Harbour at 1pm (AEDT) on Monday 26 December.

This is the 77th edition of the Rolex Sydney Hobart. The inaugural race was conducted in 1945 and has run every year since, apart from 2020, which was cancelled due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

88 boats started the 2021 Rolex Sydney Hobart, with 50 finishing.

The Sydney Hobart Yacht Race - FAQs

The number of Sydney Hobart Yacht Races held by the Cruising Yacht Club of Australia since 1945 is 75

6,257 completed the Sydney Hobart Yacht race, 1036 retired or were disqualified)

About 60,061 sailors have competed in the Sydney Hobart Race between 1945 and 2019

Largest fleets: 371 starters in the 50th race in 1994 (309 finished); 154 starters in 1987 (146 finished); 179 starters in 1985 (145 finished); 151 starters in 1984 (46 finished); 173 started in 1983 (128 finished); 159 started in 1981 (143 finished); 147 started in 1979 (142 finished); 157 started in 2019 (154 finished)

116 in 2004 (59 finished); 117 in 2014 (103 finished); 157 in 2019 (154 finished)

Nine starters in the inaugural Sydney Hobart Yacht Race in 1945

In 2015 and 2017 there were 27, including the 12 Clipper yachts (11 in 2017). In the record entry of 371 yachts in the 50th in 1994, there were 24 internationals

Rani, Captain John Illingworth RN (UK). Design: Barber 35’ cutter. Line and handicap winner

157 starters, 154 finishers (3 retirements)

IRC Overall: Ichi Ban, a TP52 owned by Matt Allen, NSW. Last year’s line honours winner: Comanche, Verdier Yacht Design and VPLP (FRA) owned by Jim Cooney and Samantha Grant, in 1 day 18 hours, 30 minutes, 24 seconds. Just 1hour 58min 32secs separated the five super maxis at the finish 

1 day 9 hours 15 minutes and 24 seconds, set in 2017 by LDV Comanche after Wild Oats XI was penalised one hour in port/starboard incident for a finish time of 1d 9h 48m 50s

The oldest ever sailor was Syd Fischer (88 years, 2015).

As a baby, Raud O'Brien did his first of some six Sydney Hobarts on his parent's Wraith of Odin (sic). As a veteran at three, Raud broke his arm when he fell off the companionway steps whilst feeding biscuits to the crew on watch Sophie Tasker sailed the 1978 race as a four-year-old on her father’s yacht Siska, which was not an official starter due to not meeting requirements of the CYCA. Sophie raced to Hobart in 1979, 1982 and 1983.

Quite a number of teenage boys and girls have sailed with their fathers and mothers, including Tasmanian Ken Gourlay’s 14-year-old son who sailed on Kismet in 1957. A 12-year-old boy, Travis Foley, sailed in the fatal 1998 race aboard Aspect Computing, which won PHS overall.

In 1978, the Brooker family sailed aboard their yacht Touchwood – parents Doug and Val and their children, Peter (13), Jacqueline (10), Kathryne (8) and Donald (6). Since 1999, the CYCA has set an age limit of 18 for competitors

Jane (‘Jenny’) Tate, from Hobart, sailed with her husband Horrie aboard Active in the 1946 Race, as did Dagmar O’Brien with her husband, Dr Brian (‘Mick’) O’Brien aboard Connella. Unfortunately, Connella was forced to retire in Bass Strait, but Active made it to the finish. The Jane Tate Memorial Trophy is presented each year to the first female skipper to finish the race

In 2019, Bill Barry-Cotter brought Katwinchar, built in 1904, back to the start line. She had competed with a previous owner in 1951. It is believed she is the oldest yacht to compete. According to CYCA life member and historian Alan Campbell, more than 31 yachts built before 1938 have competed in the race, including line honours winners Morna/Kurrewa IV (the same boat, renamed) and Astor, which were built in the 1920s.

Bruce Farr/Farr Yacht Design (NZL/USA) – can claim 20 overall wins from 1976 (with Piccolo) up to and including 2015 (with Balance)

Screw Loose (1979) – LOA 9.2m (30ft); Zeus II (1981) LOA 9.2m

TKlinger, NSW (1978) – LOA 8.23m (27ft)

Wild Oats XI (2012) – LOA 30.48m (100ft). Wild Oats XI had previously held the record in 2005 when she was 30m (98ft)

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